Polarization between mature and immature small launchers will intensity? Who will be the next SpaceX? -Latest Trends in the Space Business: Small Satellite Conference 2024 — Part Ⅱ
August 3 — August 8, 2024, Small Satellite Conference 2024, the world’s largest small satellite-related conference, was held at Utah State University for six days. In this article, Mr. Mori, CSO & CEO of the U.S., reports on the event.
(Click here for the first part. Click here for the third part.)
The Small Satellite Conference 2024 was a symbolic occasion for changes in the small rocket launch market. Until last year, many operators from around the world had exhibited booths, vying to prevent SpaceX from monopolizing the market. This year, however, companies with tight finances or poor development status disappeared, and only five or six companies exhibited, including Rocket Lab and Firefly. The absence of companies such as Relativity Space and Astra Space from the U.S. and Rocket Factory Augsburg from Germany also revealed that the market is becoming increasingly selective and weeded out.
On the other hand, Interstellar Technologies, a Japanese small rocket launch company, did have a booth, showing its presence despite the intense selection pressure.
Mori attributes this phenomenon mainly to a lack of technology seeds.
As mentioned in the first part of this series, the demand for small satellites from the security side has been decreasing in recent years, and the need to launch larger, heavier satellites is increasing. Therefore, small rocket operators are being asked to develop launch vehicles with launch capacities ranging from 100–500 kilograms into Low Earth Orbit to nearly one ton. Of course, each company is trying to develop rockets with this kind of launch capability, but the development of the corresponding engines and rockets requires an extremely high level of technology and a project management system, making it extremely difficult to schedule development and testing without delays. However, customers also have their own schedules, and small launch vehicle operators that fall behind are at increasing risk of losing customers and falling into financial difficulties.
In the future, it is expected to become increasingly difficult for new entrants to enter the small rocket business without the intervention of huge capital. Against this backdrop, it is clear that the small rocket market has entered a new phase in which a small number of high-quality companies will thrive, rather than a forest of new entrants.
(Writer: Junichiro Nakazawa)
